As we have been saying last days, 880 is a very strong resistence for the SP 500. Indicators (RSI) where very overbought on the 60 min. charts. So it isn't surprising we couldn't take out the 880 level at the first atempt. The matket revearsed after making a new high for this rally. So we are still making higher lows and higher highs. We mantain our Bullish bias for this market until the Bull channel is broken. We expect the market to test again the validity of this channel. In that case expect to see 860's tested again.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
XLF - MS - IBM
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
INDU - Morgan Stanley - JP Morgan - XLF
Dow Jones broke out the downtrending channel. Volume was not so heavy, so place tight stops when opening long positions.
Although the low volume, XLF did pretty well today. Still have to get over 11, to break out. Classic Inverted H&S pattern underway on this one.
It's interesting they managed to closed JPM over 34, which is a pretty tough resistence. We'll see if we can have some follow thru on this one tomorrow.
10 Year rate shooted up today over 3.10% as Fed said they will stop buying T-bonds. That sounds bullish for stocks short term.
10 Year rate shooted up today over 3.10% as Fed said they will stop buying T-bonds. That sounds bullish for stocks short term.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Spy ST Bull channel - TLT
En SPY, 10 dias, se ve una gran congestion. Mañana con la decicion de la Fed y el dato del GDP deberiamos tener una definicion. Segun la amplitud de la figura, estimamos un movimiento de +/- 40 puntos en el SP 500. Algo asi como un 4-5%. Ya sea para arriba o para bajo habra que estar preparados para actuar rapido. Porque ademas si son 40 puntos para abajo, se saldria del canal alcista, y daria una señal de venta confirmada.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Dow Transport - Trader's Sentiment
http://tickersense.typepad.com/
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Dollar Index
Dollar Index quebro la trend alcista que traia desde el 19/3 con Gap a la baja. Proximos soportes: 24.80 - 23.90 -22.80.
De medio plazo, pareciera estar formandose alguna especie de congestion, que en algun momento debiera resoverse, con una salida fuerte.
De corto deberia ser bullish para el Oro: la fortaleza del Oro esta en la debilidad de Dolar..
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Trading Volume Separates Bull Markets from Bear Rallies
One of the platitudes most constantly quoted in Wall Street is to the effect that one should never sell a dull market short. That advice is probably right oftener than it is wrong, but it is always wrong in an extended bear swing. In such a swing the tendency is to become dull on rallies and active on declines.
- William Peter Hamilton, The Stock Market Barometer (1909).
Volume tends to expand in the main direction of the trend. In a bull market, advances accompanied by increasing volume or declines on diminishing volume are taken to be bullish. Conversly, in a bear market, declines are accompanied by increasing volume and advances show diminishing volume. Volume should always be studied as a trend (relative to what has preceded).
- Richard Russell, The Dow Theory Today
The bottom is preceded by a period in which the market declines on low volumes and rises on high volumes. The end of a bear market is characterised by a final slump of prices on low trading volumes. Confirmation that the bear trend is over will be rising volumes at the new higher levels after the first rebound in prices.
- Russell Napier, Anatomy of the Bear (his study of the four great stock market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949, and 1982).
Whether it was William Peter Hamilton observing the trading activity of the 19th century, or Richard Russell who has studied the market's real-time price and volume action for more than 50 years, or Russell Napier who took the time for an in-depth review of the 4 greatest buying opportunities in the 20th century, each came to a similar conclusion: to confirm a change in market conditons, watch trading volume closely. By this measure, the market's recent rally still has much to prove.
The graphs below attempt to provide visual support to the idea that volume matters as a characteristic of a rally – especially one that is so widely annointed as the beginning of a new bull market. The graphs will hopefully also add to the comments John Hussman has made – including those in last week's Green Shoots over Thin Ice and December's Recogntion, Fear and Revulsion . Specifically, bear markets don't typically end in a crescendo of fear and panic, but more often on a feeling of “despair and disillusionment,” while strong bull markets tend to feature heavy trading volume.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090413.htm
- William Peter Hamilton, The Stock Market Barometer (1909).
Volume tends to expand in the main direction of the trend. In a bull market, advances accompanied by increasing volume or declines on diminishing volume are taken to be bullish. Conversly, in a bear market, declines are accompanied by increasing volume and advances show diminishing volume. Volume should always be studied as a trend (relative to what has preceded).
- Richard Russell, The Dow Theory Today
The bottom is preceded by a period in which the market declines on low volumes and rises on high volumes. The end of a bear market is characterised by a final slump of prices on low trading volumes. Confirmation that the bear trend is over will be rising volumes at the new higher levels after the first rebound in prices.
- Russell Napier, Anatomy of the Bear (his study of the four great stock market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949, and 1982).
Whether it was William Peter Hamilton observing the trading activity of the 19th century, or Richard Russell who has studied the market's real-time price and volume action for more than 50 years, or Russell Napier who took the time for an in-depth review of the 4 greatest buying opportunities in the 20th century, each came to a similar conclusion: to confirm a change in market conditons, watch trading volume closely. By this measure, the market's recent rally still has much to prove.
The graphs below attempt to provide visual support to the idea that volume matters as a characteristic of a rally – especially one that is so widely annointed as the beginning of a new bull market. The graphs will hopefully also add to the comments John Hussman has made – including those in last week's Green Shoots over Thin Ice and December's Recogntion, Fear and Revulsion . Specifically, bear markets don't typically end in a crescendo of fear and panic, but more often on a feeling of “despair and disillusionment,” while strong bull markets tend to feature heavy trading volume.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090413.htm
Inverted H&S?
Spy, seguimos la potencial formacion de un gigante HCH Invertido, que tendria como neckline, los 950 puntos. Ese seria el objetivo a alcanzar para este rally, por el momento, antes de ver una fuerte baja en este mercado de por lo menos 15% -
Arriba de 880 puntos esta variante pasa a ser bastante seria. De manera que lo que pase en las siguientes ruedas puede ser clave para ver si este rally puede extenderse (impulsado por short covering corridos).
Financials
Spy Bull channel underway
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)