tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3507178658528281832024-03-13T12:46:14.663-07:00Trading PatternsTheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-46407740505283600512009-08-25T08:59:00.001-07:002009-08-25T09:02:01.688-07:0010.325<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SpQKgQKmSGI/AAAAAAAAAU0/lDsaN8Fz3vI/s1600-h/1.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5373931804571355234" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SpQKgQKmSGI/AAAAAAAAAU0/lDsaN8Fz3vI/s400/1.JPG" border="0" /></a> En ese valor dejo un Gap gigante el Dow el 6/10/08. No seria raro que lo cierre antes de que veamos cualquier reversion de medio plazo en el mercado. Coincide justo con el 50% de retroceso de toda la caida desde los maximos.<br /><div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-83606019662648436042009-07-02T13:51:00.001-07:002009-07-02T13:54:07.209-07:00UNG<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sk0d4yQXQlI/AAAAAAAAAUs/io3f6yoPr58/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5353968393413673554" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sk0d4yQXQlI/AAAAAAAAAUs/io3f6yoPr58/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>El UNG finalmente definio un quiebre contundente del soporte que hasta ahora venia sirviendo como zona de rebote. De esta manera queda habilitado un triangulo simetrico, que es generalmente una figura de continuacion de tendencia. El Target de dicha figura esta en el orden de los 10 Usd.</div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-16050873348373774172009-06-25T13:25:00.001-07:002009-06-25T13:34:31.979-07:00UNG<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkPdqBWOmNI/AAAAAAAAAUk/4bEp399Z0Dg/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5351364496232192210" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkPdqBWOmNI/AAAAAAAAAUk/4bEp399Z0Dg/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkPdmU7rQZI/AAAAAAAAAUc/V0nK_fuaDfg/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5351364432770056594" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkPdmU7rQZI/AAAAAAAAAUc/V0nK_fuaDfg/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a> La divergencia alcista señalada ayer en compresion 30 y 60 minutos fue confirmada con el +3% de hoy.</div><div>Deberia ir nuevamente a testear la resistencia descendente que pasaria por los 15.50 Usd aproximadamente. De no poder superarla, sera otra oportunidad mas para volver a lanzar Calls.</div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-80479785144996928342009-06-24T13:27:00.000-07:002009-06-24T13:36:50.049-07:00UNG<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkKNe1Z63SI/AAAAAAAAAUU/PBiEABSRcAE/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350994868140956962" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkKNe1Z63SI/AAAAAAAAAUU/PBiEABSRcAE/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkKMM44YKyI/AAAAAAAAAUM/orgW5rnN5Bg/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350993460324739874" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkKMM44YKyI/AAAAAAAAAUM/orgW5rnN5Bg/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a> Como deciamos ayer, el Target de 14.40 por doble techo en 16.20 fue alcanzado con creces. La divergencia alcista sigue vigente en compresion 60 minutos. Habria que esperar confirmacion igualmente para abrir posiciones Long nuevamente.</div><div>En compresion diaria se ve que hoy se apoyo en un soporte muy importante que varias veces ha servido como zona de despegue. Por lo tanto, no seria nada bueno que mañana lo quebrara base cierre.<br />Tambien cabe destacar que el volumen se ha incrementado un poco con respecto a las ultimas ruedas.<br /></div><div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-41600916770143824292009-06-23T14:44:00.000-07:002009-06-23T14:48:26.615-07:00UNG<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkFMvE827UI/AAAAAAAAAUE/Zp1SYrMetRM/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350642203959422274" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkFMvE827UI/AAAAAAAAAUE/Zp1SYrMetRM/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a> UNG, alcanzo el Target que habiamos planteado el jueves pasado del doble techo en 16.20, que era de 14.40.<br />Se encuentra nuevamente en zona de sobreventa y con divergencia alcista de RSI en compresion 30 minutos.<br />Toco ademas la linea que unia los maximos decrecientes, completando el pullback con volumen decreciente.TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-27905628463364788172009-06-22T16:33:00.001-07:002009-06-22T16:38:10.423-07:00UNG pullback?<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkAU4gOne_I/AAAAAAAAAT8/1BSAyyPLWeY/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350299318272621554" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SkAU4gOne_I/AAAAAAAAAT8/1BSAyyPLWeY/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a> El UNG cumplio hoy con el Target para el doble techo señalado el jueves pasado en zona de 16.20, que era de 14.40.<br />Como se ve en el chart de compresion diaria, hoy volvio a testear la trend bajista anteriormente quebrada. Puede que haya sido el pullback.<br />Hay que ver mañana si lo confirma con una vela verde.TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-7588590700962325212009-06-22T14:03:00.001-07:002009-06-22T14:26:24.340-07:00AJ12 - PR13<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sj_1pXKJLgI/AAAAAAAAAT0/g2ERaSTkvuI/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350264973279440386" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sj_1pXKJLgI/AAAAAAAAAT0/g2ERaSTkvuI/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a> El PR13 quebro tambien la trend alcista que habia servido de guia desde fines de Marzo. En este bono la correccion se encuentra mas avanzada. Vulnerado el 38.2%, queda 24.80 como proximo soporte. En el extremo podria corregir incluso hasta los 22 pesos, nivel que de ser quebrado a la baja anularia todo el movimiento alcista.<br /><div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sj_xsT06BdI/AAAAAAAAATs/nqga5mNJx4k/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350260625878156754" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sj_xsT06BdI/AAAAAAAAATs/nqga5mNJx4k/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>El AJ12 como vemos ya habia cortado la trend alcista el viernes pasado. Hoy tuvo una muy fuerte caida que confirmo dicho quiebre. El proximo soporte es 43.20, que corresponde al 38.2% de toda la suba, un retroceso que casi siempre se cumple en las correcciones. En caso de que llegara a vulnerar dicho nivel, quedarian los 40 pesos como 2do soporte. Hay que tener cuidado con estos bonos en general y mas con este en particular (que tiene una altisima volatilidad) porque venian de subir mucho y en muy poco tiempo. </div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-61956225970307515482009-06-18T15:49:00.001-07:002009-06-18T16:16:29.252-07:00UNG<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjrJiTYjFfI/AAAAAAAAATk/Qm92j80CqG4/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348809098611856882" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjrJiTYjFfI/AAAAAAAAATk/Qm92j80CqG4/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjrEeJuBmyI/AAAAAAAAATc/3k76ZWW7KPE/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348803529739967266" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjrEeJuBmyI/AAAAAAAAATc/3k76ZWW7KPE/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>El UNG, nuevamente fallo en superar la resistencia de 16 Usd. En el grafico de compresion 30 minutos se ve claramente un potencial doble techo en la zona de 16. Digo potencial porque cerro justo en 15.30, que es el valor que habilitaria la ejecucion de la figura. En caso de quebrar dicho nivel, se habilita el Target de 14.40.</div><br /><div>La otra posibilidad es que este haciendo una correccion plana, en cuyo caso mañana mismo deberia salir para arriba, para en algun momento superar los 16 con facilidad. </div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-72946449865205329802009-06-17T08:10:00.000-07:002009-06-17T16:43:35.670-07:00SPX 200 DMA<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjl-DKlso3I/AAAAAAAAATU/tTb7NKal_OM/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348444625326351218" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjl-DKlso3I/AAAAAAAAATU/tTb7NKal_OM/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjlKReAp-GI/AAAAAAAAATM/1wO7-nzd7mY/s1600-h/1.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348387696453220450" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjlKReAp-GI/AAAAAAAAATM/1wO7-nzd7mY/s400/1.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><div>El SP 500 opera en una zona deciciva. Como se ve en el chart de compresion semanal (3 años) hubo una ruptura del mega canal bajista en el que venia operando el indice. Lo que hay que mirar con mucha atencion es el comportamiento en lo inmediato. Ya que, de meterse nuevamente dentro del canal, habria quedado la salida como un Fakeout (falsa salida), en cuyo caso la baja se dinamizaria mucho.</div><div>Por otro lado, de congestionar en estos niveles, el indice deberia dar al menos un buen rebote antes de continuar la baja. En ese sentido, si vulnerase dicho soporte (la media de 200 ruedas) 876 seria el siguiente Target.<br /><br /><br /></div><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-11337555365579973132009-06-16T20:47:00.001-07:002009-06-16T20:54:47.484-07:00LCC UAUA AMR<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjho7-KPZ7I/AAAAAAAAAS8/mtJgX3vvuWg/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348139937009985458" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjho7-KPZ7I/AAAAAAAAAS8/mtJgX3vvuWg/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjhng3ClpLI/AAAAAAAAAS0/jVY-NcjN4F0/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348138371730744498" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sjhng3ClpLI/AAAAAAAAAS0/jVY-NcjN4F0/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjhndY5xlyI/AAAAAAAAASs/TylqOPJb9Ak/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348138312101107490" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjhndY5xlyI/AAAAAAAAASs/TylqOPJb9Ak/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Para empezar a mirar, en caso de recortar el OIL, las aerolineas deberian tener fuertes rebotes. Teniendo en cuenta que la mayoria de estas acciones estan cotizando a precios que descuentan escenarios muy pesimistas, los rebotes pueden ser importantes.<br /><br /><div></div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-55839634926417521872009-06-15T13:31:00.001-07:002009-06-15T13:40:18.698-07:00Pullback??<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjawRdSS_bI/AAAAAAAAASk/8p-7hhhrW5Y/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5347655421514677682" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjawRdSS_bI/AAAAAAAAASk/8p-7hhhrW5Y/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjawNmJ_DmI/AAAAAAAAASc/3VUTKHV2qSA/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5347655355176259170" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SjawNmJ_DmI/AAAAAAAAASc/3VUTKHV2qSA/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />El UNG, quebro la trend bajista de corto plazo. Vemos como el corte de los 15 usd, le imprimio una aceleracion alcista al movimiento que arranco en los 14, dejando una gran vela verde con el +7% de hoy. Lo interesante es que la suba del Natural Gas se da en un dia de bajas generalizadas con todos los demas comodities en baja e incluso con una baja importante del EUR.</div><div> </div><div></div><div>En cuanto al SP 500, queda abierta aun la posibilidad de que esta baja sea un simple pullback para luego buscar new highs. En este sentido, hay que mirar con mucha atencion los 912 puntos de indice. Esa puede ser la zona que marque la diferencia entre un simple pullback y el principio de algo mayor.<br /><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-49963134105019494902009-06-09T14:17:00.001-07:002009-06-09T14:21:41.762-07:00UNG<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Si7RY7AHGhI/AAAAAAAAASU/XFYsinJsS2c/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5345440033820580370" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Si7RY7AHGhI/AAAAAAAAASU/XFYsinJsS2c/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>A testear otra vez la resistencia. Tiene que pasar 15 para habilitar una suba interesante y salirse finalmente de la congestion. En la zona 13.70-80 se detecta un volumen muy importante durante estos ultimos dias.</div><div> </div><div>Stop Loss 13.50.</div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-9318591831187665512009-06-05T14:14:00.000-07:002009-06-09T14:22:44.982-07:00Bank of America<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SirBgEjHBzI/AAAAAAAAAP8/QzJ4oglbwY0/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5344296664549492530" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SirBgEjHBzI/AAAAAAAAAP8/QzJ4oglbwY0/s400/c.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SimLM7tYXeI/AAAAAAAAAPk/j6zd_3D2fEU/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5343955487154527714" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SimLM7tYXeI/AAAAAAAAAPk/j6zd_3D2fEU/s400/c.JPG" border="0" /></a> <div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-5732138431501279022009-06-05T08:55:00.001-07:002009-06-09T14:23:03.366-07:00UNG (Us Natural Gas)<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sik_-yIEgfI/AAAAAAAAAPc/-Ao0xQQjqcY/s1600-h/1.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5343872780691866098" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sik_-yIEgfI/AAAAAAAAAPc/-Ao0xQQjqcY/s400/1.JPG" border="0" /></a>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-89413233264957050352009-06-01T15:34:00.000-07:002009-06-01T15:41:02.526-07:00The market broke out<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SiRYd1lImOI/AAAAAAAAAPU/_Umps_Wq6Uw/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342492327590533346" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SiRYd1lImOI/AAAAAAAAAPU/_Umps_Wq6Uw/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SiRYZxrEh0I/AAAAAAAAAPM/LVZ5NZrRUZI/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342492257822213954" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SiRYZxrEh0I/AAAAAAAAAPM/LVZ5NZrRUZI/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Expecting SPY to backtest the dinamic resistance. 980 is the Target for this up move. We'll see any pulback tomorrow as an oportunity to go long. 925-930 must hold on any retracement.<br /><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-28952618609331614562009-05-21T13:27:00.000-07:002009-05-22T15:23:15.752-07:00XLF<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShclfWyoGNI/AAAAAAAAAPE/cCndk2Wh8Po/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338777103895107794" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShclfWyoGNI/AAAAAAAAAPE/cCndk2Wh8Po/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShXVdqppGmI/AAAAAAAAAOs/wnuzaYu4GwE/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338407638959463010" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShXVdqppGmI/AAAAAAAAAOs/wnuzaYu4GwE/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>XLF has to resolve the pattern. The structure is anticipating a strong move. No need to front run this market. It's better to wait for a definition.<br /><div> </div></div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-21212900013356263082009-05-20T15:47:00.000-07:002009-05-20T16:03:36.777-07:00Another chance for bears..<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShSMN9NzPoI/AAAAAAAAAOU/s2fDxlVvS94/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338045629739515522" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShSMN9NzPoI/AAAAAAAAAOU/s2fDxlVvS94/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><br /><div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShSIwm0zMYI/AAAAAAAAAOE/C-5P487NfhQ/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338041826977984898" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShSIwm0zMYI/AAAAAAAAAOE/C-5P487NfhQ/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />To tank this market.<br /><div> </div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-6946816865386755752009-05-18T11:13:00.000-07:002009-05-18T21:02:45.381-07:00Back in Track<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShIvV9xarSI/AAAAAAAAANc/4YrFDLWqnvA/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5337380562793049378" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShIvV9xarSI/AAAAAAAAANc/4YrFDLWqnvA/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShHPEkiR_8I/AAAAAAAAANE/amyYuhN7ERE/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5337274710844637122" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/ShHPEkiR_8I/AAAAAAAAANE/amyYuhN7ERE/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a>It seems they want to force prices to touch the descending resistance, before letting the market fall. That is exacty where both channels would converge, as stated 2 weeks ago. Please refer to 1st May post.<br />That's the best bulls can ask for.</div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-27444747457714070642009-05-15T09:36:00.000-07:002009-05-15T16:40:08.490-07:00The perfect Short Setup?<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sg39P5aIrsI/AAAAAAAAAMU/hUO993CWMf0/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5336199583054212802" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sg39P5aIrsI/AAAAAAAAAMU/hUO993CWMf0/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Everytime the market touched the bottom of the channel it has turned quickly and bounce like a rocket. Now I think the "Buy the dip" strategy will fail. Monday opening will be key for this market. A gap down on monday below that line would put the market definitely out of the channel and would trigger some serious selloff.<br />They better hold the double bottom. If not, Bulls will be in serious trouble.TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-35921841954606330512009-05-13T10:41:00.000-07:002009-05-14T16:05:35.723-07:0043 days ST Top is in<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgyjKiCG8PI/AAAAAAAAALM/PyNQERjMLc4/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335819059856863474" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgyjKiCG8PI/AAAAAAAAALM/PyNQERjMLc4/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a> XLF bounced again just at the bottom of the channel. Until bears can break down this ST channel, this isn't going to accelerate to the downside. That is what they should test next days. Still a double Top at 13 is in play. So beware.<br /><div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgsGfnelBfI/AAAAAAAAALE/KMqjcULsgjA/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335365323793434098" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgsGfnelBfI/AAAAAAAAALE/KMqjcULsgjA/s400/c.JPG" border="0" /></a> "It's now more than a month since I was calling for this pattern medium term. I feel we are getting pretty close to a turning point ST. The lower the Vix goes, the stronger will be the revearsal.43 days from 6th March get us to 7th May. That's exactly the lenght we had on the last big drop (Jan-March 09'). The simetry is quite impressive. If this plays out as I think, when this leg finishes, we would see a sharp retracement (150 points at least) to get the right shoulder, maybe 200 to get SPX to 750's again.Although we could extend this rally some points, we "must" see a very sharp and quick drop from these levels (940-960) for this pattern to play out MT."<br /><br />Last week I wrote this. And it seems 930 marked a double Top. We'll see how we get the right shoulder (-10/-15% decline).<br /><br /><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-73227478968821255872009-05-13T07:25:00.001-07:002009-05-13T09:39:37.214-07:00XLF - DJT<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sgr3qyQKpsI/AAAAAAAAAKk/7Osdrk1ayH8/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335349022989919938" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sgr3qyQKpsI/AAAAAAAAAKk/7Osdrk1ayH8/s400/c.JPG" border="0" /></a> Dow Transport, leading the decline.<br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgrYj7e2KfI/AAAAAAAAAKc/RSB84qgtNCg/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335314820347865586" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgrYj7e2KfI/AAAAAAAAAKc/RSB84qgtNCg/s400/c.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div>Trying to find support.<br /></div><br /><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-36018994322375070382009-05-12T21:44:00.000-07:002009-05-12T21:49:10.973-07:00NDQ - SPY - DIA - XLF<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpRDPRZdGI/AAAAAAAAAKM/y3KYW1wPxRA/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335165824654734434" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 192px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpRDPRZdGI/AAAAAAAAAKM/y3KYW1wPxRA/s320/1.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ_Q_HNvI/AAAAAAAAAKE/x1wbjDaxVwY/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335165756395435762" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 192px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ_Q_HNvI/AAAAAAAAAKE/x1wbjDaxVwY/s320/2.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ7VlmVNI/AAAAAAAAAJ8/pOZDYRp0V84/s1600-h/bottom.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335165688911123666" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 192px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ7VlmVNI/AAAAAAAAAJ8/pOZDYRp0V84/s320/bottom.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ2fQ6okI/AAAAAAAAAJ0/m00dCF4dNyw/s1600-h/c.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335165605609382466" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 192px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgpQ2fQ6okI/AAAAAAAAAJ0/m00dCF4dNyw/s320/c.JPG" border="0" /></a> In red, 200 DMA.</div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-71654390563846958742009-05-05T14:09:00.000-07:002009-05-05T14:13:06.658-07:00Wells Fargo - XLF<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgCrWv6nqYI/AAAAAAAAAHs/F2xwR_VM_sQ/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332450366114474370" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgCrWv6nqYI/AAAAAAAAAHs/F2xwR_VM_sQ/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a> XLF uptrending channel.<br /><div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgCrR72SQNI/AAAAAAAAAHk/7MzkLfG8z_k/s1600-h/2.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332450283418173650" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/SgCrR72SQNI/AAAAAAAAAHk/7MzkLfG8z_k/s400/2.jpg" border="0" /></a> WFC will trigger a buy signal on any gap higher tomorrow morning.<br /><br /><div></div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-49474853174016156322009-05-04T18:02:00.000-07:002009-05-05T11:51:29.986-07:00Looking at The Big picture..<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf-QQ0TGzTI/AAAAAAAAAHc/uYTCqHnceO4/s1600-h/1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332139102421044530" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf-QQ0TGzTI/AAAAAAAAAHc/uYTCqHnceO4/s400/1.jpg" border="0" /></a>It's now more than a month since I was calling for this pattern medium term. I feel we are getting pretty close to a turning point ST.43 days from 6th March get us to 7th May. That's exactly the lenght we had on the last big drop (Jan-March 09'). The simetry is quite impressive. If this plays out as I think, when this leg finishes, we would see a sharp retracement (150 points at least) to get the right shoulder, maybe 200 to get SPX to 750's again.Although we could extend this rally some points,, we "must" see a very sharp and quick drop from these levels (940-960), for this pattern to play out.TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-350717865852828183.post-33854571813013355142009-05-04T14:10:00.001-07:002009-05-04T14:17:30.313-07:00XLF again..<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf9au5M-GsI/AAAAAAAAAHE/MPUZbv-kdMY/s1600-h/GLD.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332080245505661634" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf9au5M-GsI/AAAAAAAAAHE/MPUZbv-kdMY/s400/GLD.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><div><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf9Z2hXWUNI/AAAAAAAAAG8/mzqw-ZBYkv8/s1600-h/GLD.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332079277034066130" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 240px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PjXcyxBXfKU/Sf9Z2hXWUNI/AAAAAAAAAG8/mzqw-ZBYkv8/s400/GLD.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><div>Today it has broken to the upside with a big green candle. We mantain the 13-14 Target for this H&S pattern in prgress.</div></div>TheTraderOptionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12386228674370698603noreply@blogger.com0